After a brief fluctuation in the United States, the economy returns to its scheduled route
■ Due to weather factors, the US economy may fluctuate from December to January last year.
■ After February, it gradually returned to the scheduled route, but due to credit issues, a new inhibiting factor was generated.
In the United States, due to the recession of the economic war at the end of the year, there were concerns about an early economic recession from the end of last year to the beginning of the year. However, with a focus on personal consumption and employment, the economy recovered rapidly in January, and the observation of a "slow economic recession" expected to avoid economic recession suddenly expanded. During this period, the United States experienced a record cold snap around the Christmas holiday in December last year, limiting economic activity centered on the service industry. However, the subsequent warm winter was linked to the sudden resumption of suppressed personal consumption and adoption activities last month. Due to weather factors, there is a high probability that changes in the US economy will be amplified. In judging the tone, it is necessary to consider these temporary effects.
Looking at the US consumer index and labor indicators released last weekend, in retail sales, the key growth in core sales other than automobiles, catering, building materials, and gasoline, which are the basic data for personal consumption calculations in GDP statistics, has continued (up 0.5% compared to the previous month), while the growth rate in other areas has slowed down (up 2.3%) compared to the previous month. Considering the impact of rising prices, the quantity of durable consumer goods such as cars and furniture is declining. According to employment statistics, the number of non-agricultural sector employees (an increase of 311000) has remained stable since last month (an increase of 504000). However, since June 2021, the number of recruitment indices released by American human resources service giants has indeed continued into February (an average monthly decrease of 10.1%), as well as the number of new weekly unemployment insurance applications. Since March, the labor market has begun to soften, with over 200000 (21.2 million) workers in the eight weeks to the end of this month. Based on these results, after a sudden deceleration in December last year and a recovery in January, personal consumption and the labor market are returning to their previous tone. In terms of economic indicators, although there are no clear signs of early recession, it is not possible to confirm that the economy has risen to a level that can confirm a "slow economic recession.".
Currently, European and American banks continue to fail, and credit contraction is intensifying. In the future, it is expected that the financing standards of financial institutions will be stricter, and the rise in funding costs will become the main reason for inhibiting the real economy. Delayed interest rates on consumer loans (such as credit cards) have risen at the end of last year, and the impact of credit contracts may spread. It is necessary to recognize that this fact may be a decline in the real economy, such as personal consumption and regulatory issues in financial institutions.