Dollar yen


■ In the instability of the dollar yen exchange rate, market participants become less and less
■ Although it expects a moderate year-end new year ahead of the important event of the new year, the possibility of temporarily becoming rough

In 2022, the market became weak for a week, and in the financial market, the number of market participants began to decrease. The liquidity of the market is thin at this time every year, and the price range expansion is easy to be conscious. In this paper, I would like to confirm the cautionary note of the yen and yen market price.
For the past 20 years, the yen's yen range (between high and low) from Christmas to January 3 was 2.24 yen on average. The maximum price is 6.54 yen of 2018-1919, and 6.41 yen in 2007-08. The minimum is 0.61 yen for 2015 to 1694 and 0.94 yen in 2020-21. The yen exchange rate is in an unstable situation after the meeting of the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting on December 19 and 20 this year. For example, in the currency option market in the latter half of last week, the price formation was considered to be "the possibility that the dollar yen falls to 122 yen from 1 month to 3 months ahead". For the sake of clarity, please focus on the following two points.

The first point is cancellation of position of speculation. This is due to the expansion of the U.S. - Japan policy interest rate difference. U.S. interest rates rose to 4.25-4.50 percent in an additional interest rate in the Federal Open Market Committee in December. Japan's short-term policy interest rate was minus 0.10 percent, and the policy interest rate increased to about 4.5 percent. This means a significant increase in the holding cost of dollar sales and yen buying positions compared with a year ago (0.3%). If there are market participants who have built a new dollar sales and yen buying position since December 20, it is expected that the position will be cancelled once the end of the year. If it realizes, there will be a possibility that the price will fluctuate on December 28.

The second is the difference of the start date of the new year. The new year's dollar exchange rate starts in the absence of a participant in Tokyo market because the United States is on January 3 (fire) and the Japan market is the fourth (water) on the new year's start of trading. Moreover, it is said that there is a dealer aiming at the new year that the price is shaken because the overseas financial institution is a start of the settlement in January. It is expected that it will basically be a calm year-end year in order to refrain from the announcement of the U. s.employment statistics in December on the fourth (Wednesday) on the fourth (Wednesday) on the fourth in the water immediately after the new year. However, I think that there is a base that the dollar yen market temporarily becomes rough as mentioned above, and I want to try to calm down even if anything happens.