Japanese stock market outlook
2022-12-23
■ The relative severity of corporate performance due to the yen
■ The Nikkei average is aware of the range transition, and is aware of the downward deflection risk due to the progress of the yen
This year, the stock price has been limited relatively low in the world since the beginning of the year. The background of corporate performance is the background. The price of concern about the economic deterioration was not likely to be relatively strong because the rise in the price of the Japanese economy had risen to a lower level than the rest of Japan and the Bank of Japan had been in a position to ease monetary easing. In addition, it was also felt that the economy had risen because the economic recovery of the new corona accident was delayed from the west, and the economic uncertainty of the main country intensifies in the leading country. In addition, the performance of the major export companies has been pushed up with the progress in the yen's weak yen, and the corporate performance outlook has changed steadily in Japan even though the downward revision globally.
However, this advantage may be lost in the future. The Bank of Japan decided to expand the rate of change in long-term interest rates in long and short term interest rates (yield curve controls, YCC) from. + -. 0.25% to. + -. 0.50% over the past year. Because YCC has set the upper limit of the 10 year bond yield, the sale is prevailing in advance, and there is a possibility that the fluctuation of the policy will result in a greater fluctuation in the timing of the policy correction. Therefore, the policy correction would have to be an opportunity to hit the market's surprise and remain until this structural problem repeats YCC. The Bank of Japan emphasized that the policy change is not a move toward the exit of the current monetary easing policy, but as the Bank of Japan's president and vice president of the Bank of Japan and the president of the Bank of Japan and the Bank of Japan will expire in the next few months of the next year, concerns about the rise in interest rates and the yen's appreciation due to sudden policy adjustments in the market will continue to worsen.
The top growth rate of Topix is down from 5.12% in the first half of this year to 5.8% in the foot. There is a possibility that the growth rate will be rapidly cut down if there is a fear of recession in the world, though the material peculiar to Japan such as inbound consumption is considered. It is expected that the effect of the resumption of the economy from the new corona calamity and the effect of the depreciation of the yen by the depreciation of the yen will be weakened with the passage of time, and the possibility that the relative bottom rigidity of the Japanese stock will be lost as it is. The Nikkei average is expected to expand in the range centered at 25000 yen to 28000 yen, and it wants to watch the downward shake risk by the progress of the yen height.