US and European economies
2022-12-12
The US economy ：The economy is slowing down
European economy ：Acceleration in the pace of price increases comes to a halt
The consumer confidence index (100.2, down 2.0 points month-on-month) fell for the second consecutive month in November to its lowest level since this summer, when it deteriorated due to high petrol prices. In particular, the current conditions index is below this summer's level, suggesting that consumers' spare capacity is gradually shrinking due to persistent high inflation.
The ISM Manufacturing Business Confidence Index (49.0 in November, down 1.2 points month-on-month) declined for the third consecutive month, falling below 50, the benchmark for expanding or contracting activity, for the first time since the Corona disaster. In terms of key items, production remained above 50, indicating a continuing trend of increased production, but new orders and employment were below 50, suggesting that demand for goods and labour is weakening.
The November employment figures showed that the pace of growth in non-farm payrolls (+263,000 m/m) slowed, but remained well above the 200,000 m/m mark, which is the benchmark for stable employment growth. The pace of increase in average hourly earnings (+5.1% y/y, +0.6% m/m) strengthened again. The labour participation rate (62.1%) also fell, indicating that progress in resolving the mismatch between labour supply and demand has not been made.
The euro area unemployment rate (6.5%, down 0.1 percentage point month-on-month) fell for the second consecutive month in October to a new record low. In all countries, the employment situation has remained stable at low levels and resilient in the face of a growing economic slowdown: the unemployment rate for those aged under 25 (15.0%, down 0.2 percentage points) also fell for the first time in two months, but has been at a higher level since May.
In November, the preliminary Eurozone consumer price index (HICP, up 10.0% y/y, down 0.1% m/m) saw the pace of y/y growth slow for the first time in 17 months. The rise in the core HICP excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco (+5.0% y/y, unchanged from the previous month) was also halted as energy began to fall and service prices began to be restrained.
The Eurozone Business Confidence Index (93.7 in November, up 1.0 point month-on-month) rose for the first time in nine months, but remains well below the long-term average level of 100. In the index by business category, the decline in the service sector was halted, but other business categories, such as manufacturing, remained unchanged or declined, so it is difficult to say that business conditions have picked up. In addition, the Consumer Confidence Index (confirmed reading, minus 23.9) rose from the previous month as uncertainty over price hikes and electricity shortages declined.